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The Assessment · lesson 3 of 3

What the evidence supports

After this lesson you can

Separate what you have established from what you have inferred, in writing.

Assumes you have read The impersonation exposure.

A report is read by people looking for a reason to discount it. Separating what you established from what you inferred, explicitly, is what prevents one weak claim from devaluing the rest.

Three kinds of statement

KindExample from this estateHow to write it
Establishedcv-industrial.com returns SERVFAIL from 1.1.1.1 with the ad flag absent, checked at a stated timeState it flatly, with the query and the answer.
Inferred, well-supportedFive lookalike domains are under common controlName the inference and the evidence: shared nameservers, issuance within one day.
Inferred, weaklyThe campaign was prompted by the absence of an enforcing DMARC policySay it is a hypothesis, or leave it out. It is not evidenced.
UnknownWhether any customer has entered credentials on the live phishing pageState that it is unknowable from this evidence, and say why.

The claims to resist

  • Customer harm you cannot evidence. Aggregate reports carry no recipients, and nothing in a domain assessment sees a victim.
  • Attribution. “A sophisticated actor” is unsupported by shared nameservers and a favicon hash.
  • Causation between findings. The lookalikes and the p=none record are both true; one causing the other is a story.
  • Financial impact estimates. Unless finance supplied the numbers, they are yours to defend and you cannot.

Writing the unknowns down

UNKNOWN, AND WHY

Whether the .de and .co.uk domains are locked
   The registrar is not known internally. RDAP shows a
   reseller. Resolving this is item 3 in the 30-day plan.

Whether mail has been received by the two parked
domains with MX
   No reporting has ever been configured on them.
   Publishing rua answers it in a fortnight.

Whether the 2024 CNAME target is claimable
   Requires checking the provider's name-registration
   policy. Assume claimable until established otherwise.

The unknowns section is a work list

Each one has an action that resolves it, and most of those actions are free. Written this way, the unknowns are not an admission of incompleteness — they are the first three items of the plan, with the reason each is worth doing already stated.

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